Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Migration and Conflict

Clionadh Raleigh, Lisa Jordan, Idean Salehyan
The World Bank group
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Climate change is expected to bring about significant changes in migration patterns throughout the developing world. Increases in the frequency and severity of chronic environmental hazards and sudden onset disasters are projected to alter the typical migration patterns of communities and entire countries. We examine evidence for such claims and roundly conclude that large scale community relocation due to either chronic or sudden onset hazards is and continues to be an unlikely response. We propose an alternate framework through which to examine the likely consequences of increased hazards.

This paper has been commissioned by the World Bank Group for the "Social Dimensions of Climate Change" workshop.

The Social Development Department/The World Bank Group