UN Common Messages on Internal Displacement in the Context of Disasters and Climate Change for COP28

The world is at a breaking point. Conflicts are lasting longer. Climate change is exacerbating disasters that are growing in frequency and intensity, and therefore further emphasizing the need to tackle the interconnected and reinforcing risks of conflict, disasters, and climate change that lead to internal displacement. Record numbers of people have been forced from their homes and entire communities remain trapped in protracted displacement. Globally, by the end of 2022, over 71 million people lived as internally displaced persons (IDPs).  Each year, disasters displace even greater numbers of people than conflicts, with most persons remaining within the borders of their homelands, with women, children and marginalized groups often dealing with the greatest impacts. 25 million internal disaster displacements were recorded on average every year since 2008, with 32.6 million new internal disaster displacements in 2022 – the highest figure ever.

The urgency to prevent further internal displacement and find durable solutions for those living in displacement is particularly acute given the adverse effects of climate change and disasters. As highlighted by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Synthesis Report (AR6), climate and weather hazards, both sudden and slow-onset, are increasingly driving internal displacement in every region of the world. Displacement will become ever more commonplace as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and limits to adaptation are reached.

The IPCC projects a 200% increase in human displacement across Africa for 1.6°C of global warming and an increase of 600% for 2.6°C of global warming. The projected number of people at risk of future displacement by sea level rise ranges from tens of millions to hundreds of millions by the end of this century, depending on the level of warming and assumptions about exposure. Meanwhile, climate change also affects the lives and livelihoods of affected communities in diverse and critical ways, including access to health, education, infrastructure, justice and political participation, as well as long-term resilience to future shocks.  

Already over 80% of people internally displaced by conflict originate from highly climate-vulnerable countries. Climate change acts as a risk multiplier to peace and security, exacerbating risks and driving displacement. Places affected by armed conflict, violence and instability are the least able to adapt to climate change. However, funding for climate change adaptation is not reaching the most conflict-affected and climate-vulnerable regions. Countries experiencing both conflict and climate change adverse effects receive roughly $5 per capita of climate finance for adaptation, as compared to $15 for countries that are not grappling with active conflict.  

These long-term impacts on individuals, societies and economies call for development, peacebuilding and climate actors to integrate disaster- and climate change-related displacement into policies and planning for better protection and assistance, invest in the prevention of future displacement crises and the development of durable solutions.