Youth at Risk: Unveiling Demographic and Gendered Vulnerabilities to Climate Change in the Indian Subcontinent

India's Environmental Change Reality

The vulnerability of the Indian subcontinent to the impacts of climate change is evident from a wealth of data, showcasing an average increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius from 1901 to 2008. With more than half of the Indian population engaged in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, the risk to livelihoods and productivity is substantial. The changing climate has manifested in both frequent droughts and intensified periods of heavy rainfall, adversely affecting agricultural output. As a peninsula, India is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, posing a significant threat to the approximately 310 million people residing in low-lying coastal zones. Moreover, climate change exacerbates the plight of those already living in poverty, as around 30% of the Indian population, or approximately 363 million individuals, grapple with destitution. Among this vulnerable demographic, over 1.77 million Indians are homeless, with many concentrated in "hotspots"  which are characterised by the high exposure of both the environment and the communities living there to the adverse effects of climate change. In 2020-2021, India ranked fourth globally in climate change-induced migration, with over three million people displaced.  

As climate change intensifies its grip on India, youth mobility emerges as a critical concern. With around 80% of the population residing in districts highly exposed to climate change impacts, such as extreme weather events or sea level rise, and considering 50% of India is under 30, the nation's young population faces heightened exposure to the devastating consequences of climate change. The interplay of demographic factors, such as a half of the population being under 30, combined with socio-economic conditions, including limited access to education and employment opportunities, exacerbates their vulnerability.

Unmasking Conditions of Youth Vulnerability

Youth vulnerability is a complex, intersectional concept that involves various factors, including biophysical, socio-economic, political, and ethical considerations. Its multidimensional nature poses challenges in precisely quantifying the conditions of vulnerability. As an abstract concept, vulnerability extends its applicability to various aspects and many young people find themselves entangled in the intricate web of these vulnerabilities, where numerous factors converge to shape their unique challenges and experiences. Youth faces specific vulnerabilities that disrupt their education, limit access to opportunities, and exacerbate economic instability. The Sundarbans region, for example, has seen significant youth displacement due to flooding and cyclones, illustrating the profound impact of climate change on young lives. 

Coastal Population Boom and Internal Mobility: Unravelling the Ripple Effect

India's extensive coastline of over 7500 kms holds significant strategic and economic importance for the nation. The coastal region is home to an estimated 330 million people, residing either on or within 150 kilometres of the coast. However, this population concentration poses challenges, as coastal states exhibit population densities ranging from 600 to over 2000 people per square kilometre (as observed in Kerala), surpassing the national average density of 300 per square kilometre. 

Climate change has amplified the vulnerability of communities in coastal regions to extreme weather events, including cyclones and depressions. Adding to the challenges, research suggests a concerning rise in sea levels along the Indian coast over the last century (1900-2000), with an average annual increase of about 1.7mm. By 2050, an estimated 45 million people are anticipated to be displaced by climate disasters in India. 

As extreme weather events increase in frequency and intensity, they disrupt communities, damage infrastructure, and compromise livelihoods, especially in vulnerable regions like coastal areas and rural communities. The resulting economic hardships, loss of livelihood opportunities, and heightened resource competition can lead to internal displacement and migration among young populations. Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasize the increasingly severe impacts of climate change in vulnerable regions, including rising sea levels and more frequent extreme weather events, which can render certain areas uninhabitable. As a result, communities, and particularly young people, are compelled to seek refuge in safer regions. In regions heavily reliant on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, research by organisations like the International Labour Organization (ILO) underscores how climate-induced changes can lead to reduced job opportunities for youth, jeopardising their livelihoods and the intergenerational transmission of knowledge. Displacement also disrupts access to education and healthcare services, as highlighted by studies conducted by UNICEF. These challenges become further exacerbated by the psychological and social impacts of mobility, as research reveals that young people may experience feelings of isolation, anxiety, and emotional strain as they leave their communities, lose cultural ties, and struggle to establish connections in new environments.

Unmasking Gendered Vulnerability of Young Girls

The impacts of climate change are not uniform across societies; rather, they are gendered and influenced by cultural norms, gender roles, resource access, and social hierarchies. In socially stratified societies like India, the effects of climate change are compounded by complex interactions between class, caste, gender, and sexual identity. Within this context, gender and structural inequalities are exacerbated by the increasing risks posed by climate change and disasters caused by natural hazards.

In response to the environmental and climate related challenges, families may feel compelled to migrate internally, seeking better opportunities and safety in other regions. Internal mobility, particularly from rural to urban areas, can put significant stress on social structures and economic resources in both the sending and receiving communities. This movement can disrupt families and social networks, and young individuals are often affected as they face disruptions in education, social integration, and access to healthcare. This internal migration to safer areas disproportionately impacts young girls with limited financial resources, leading to the creation of social contexts conducive to child marriages. 

The intricate interplay between situational vulnerability, stemming from internal migration, and the disruptive impact of extreme weather events creates a complex web of economic hardships and social isolation. Consequently, these factors contribute to a heightened risk of underage marriages. The aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami serves as a stark reminder of how many underage girls were compelled into marriages with "tsunami widowers" following a devastating environmental catastrophe.  The tsunami, which pushed for internal displacement coupled with economic hardships, created conditions conducive to child marriages.
 
The prevalence of child marriages in India is a deeply concerning issue, with one in three of the world's child brides residing in the country. Shockingly, among India's 223 million child brides, 102 million were married before turning 15. Climate change induced migration exacerbates the challenge of reducing child marriages, leading to the emergence of pathogenic vulnerability. This form of vulnerability arises from significant power imbalances, which undermine or limit the agency of vulnerable individuals, particularly young girls in child marriages.

Policy Recommendations

1. Develop youth and gender-sensitive climate policies: Create policies that considers various impacts of climate change on genders, with a particular focus on girls. Perform gender-sensitive vulnerability assessments for informed policy design and implementation, considering the potential mobility of women, girls and marginalised groups.
2. Empower girls and young women in climate action: Encourage girls and young women's active involvement in climate mitigation and adaptation, offering education and resources to enhance their roles in sustainable development and resilience-building.
3. Strengthen social safety nets: Implement targeted social protection for the youth, particularly women and girls facing climate-induced challenges. Ensure access to healthcare, education, and economic opportunities to bolster their adaptability, especially in cases of environmental mobility.
4. Mainstream gender in climate finance: Allocate sufficient resources to address gender and youth specific climate issues. Integrate gender considerations into climate finance mechanisms, supporting projects related to relocation, resettlement, and disaster displacement amid environmental changes.

About the author: 

Puneeth Parimsetty is an ESG specialist at Investor Update, a financial consultancy firm in London. With extensive experience in the UK, Germany, and India, he excels in delivering evidence-based, data-driven insights in corporate ESG reporting, strategy, and governance advisory. Holding a dual degree in Master of Public Administration (MPA) and Master of Public Policy (MPP) from LSE and Hertie School, Puneeth is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts (FRSA) and a driving force in advancing ESG principles.

This article is part of the IOM Blog Series: Youth Voices on Migration, Environment and Climate Change

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